Proceedings of the 2007 Georgia Basin Puget Sound Research Conference
Panel 2D: Climate Change: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Implications for the Salish Sea
Chair: James Tansey
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has undertaken its Fourth Assessment Report. This panel will provide an overview of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and will make observations on the possible implications for the Salish Sea. The panel will address mitigation efforts, but will also address adaptation through landscape and ecosystem based management, altered policy and regulation.
Panel Members:
• Hadi Dowlatabadi, CRC Chair, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia
• Alison Shaw, Research Associate, Forestry, at University of British Columbia
• Sarah Burch, PhD Candidate, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, at University of British Columbia
• Mark Johannes, University of Victoria and Golder Associates Ltd.
• Nate Mantua, University of Washington – Climate Impacts Group
How Can We Adapt? Lessons From Pacific Salmon on the Impacts of Climate Change.
I present some of the important issues and lessons from Pacific Salmon to be learned on impact and adaptation responses to climate change in the Puget Sound and Georgia Basin. To improve predictions of climate change “impacts” on future resource use, management and conservation activities will require more effort and greater refinement of climate scenarios. As an immediate response, a second “adaptation” approach can be used to reduce risk and help capitalize on conservation and biodiversity initiatives by assuming and preparing for adverse effects of climate change; this approach defines vulnerability to climate change and develops anticipatory adaptation in management and conservation of important plants, animals and ecosystems in Canada. Adaptation to climate variability and change can be used to adjust perspectives, practices, processes, management and statutory and legal systems based on projected changes in climate. Early adaptation to climate change can assist in adjusting human and community expectations to sustainable resource use and development, and protection of habitats, ecosystems and sensitive species in the context of communities within the Puget Sound and Georgia Basin.
Seasonal, Interannual and Interdecadal Scales of Variability in Puget Sound Oceanography and Climate
The influence of climate on Puget Sound oceanographic properties is investigated on seasonal to interannual timescales using continuous profile data from the Washington State Department of Ecology’s Marine Waters Monitoring Program for the time period 1993 to 2002. Principle component analysis identified indices representing 42, 58 and 56% of the total variability at depth-station combinations for temperature, salinity and density variability, respectively, and 22% for water column stratification. Long term records of sea surface temperature and salinity from Race Rocks were used to extend the time series of the leading principal components to 1950 and allow for an examination of relationships with climate on interannual to interdecadal timescales. In general, regional climate forcings strongly influence oceanographic properties with significant relationships between air and water temperature, and between streamflow, salinity and density. Large scale patterns of climate variability such as El Niņo/Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, also significantly influence oceanographic properties but relationships are less pronounced than those with regional factors, and exist only during winter and fall. By providing insights into the space-time patterns of physical oceanographic changes in Puget Sound this study contributes towards an enhanced understanding of linkages between climate, oceanography and the frequency, duration and magnitude of harmful algal blooms.